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Esenler Erokspor vs Serik Spor — 1. Lig 2018

Esenler Erokspor
Esenler Erokspor
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Serik Spor
Serik Spor
8/23/20251. Lig1. Lig · Round 3Esenler Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Esenler Erokspor57%
×Draw23%
Serik Spor20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esenler Erokspor
1.81
Serik Spor
0.96

Esenler Erokspor creates 89% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 19 away

creates per match

Esenler Erokspor
1.77
Serik Spor
0.84

allows per match

Esenler Erokspor
1.08
Serik Spor
1.84

finishing

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par
Serik Spor+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esenler Erokspor ↓

Serik Spor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Esenler Erokspor or draw
80%
Esenler Erokspor or Serik Spor
77%
Draw or Serik Spor
43%

Winning margin

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+
33%
Serik Spor wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals
84%
Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals
54%
Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals
27%
Serik Spor 1+ goals
62%
Serik Spor 2+ goals
25%
Serik Spor 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)
74%
Serik Spor (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esenler Erokspor at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.08 · 39 matches

Serik Spor away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.77 + Serik Spor defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.81

Serik Spor attack 0.84 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Esenler Erokspor scores more
57%
level
23%
Serik Spor scores more
20%

Esenler Erokspor at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esenler Erokspor vs Serik Spor

Esenler Erokspor beat Serik Spor 5-0 in 1. Lig on August 23, 2025.

The match was played at Esenler Stadium in Istanbul.