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Sergipe vs Barcelona BA — Serie D 2025

Sergipe
Sergipe
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Barcelona BA
Barcelona BA
Reny Max 85', 80'
Felipe Para 23' (pen)
Matheus Sacramento 10'
Diki 5'
6/8/2025Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Estadual Lourival Baptista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sergipe65%
×Draw24%
Barcelona BA12%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sergipe
1.65
Barcelona BA
0.54

Sergipe creates 206% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 7 away

creates per match

Sergipe
1.29
Barcelona BA
0.29

allows per match

Sergipe
0.79
Barcelona BA
2.00

finishing

Sergipe+0.00on par
Barcelona BA+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sergipe ↓

Barcelona BA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sergipe or draw
88%
Sergipe or Barcelona BA
76%
Draw or Barcelona BA
35%

Winning margin

Sergipe wins by 2+
37%
Barcelona BA wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sergipe 1+ goals
81%
Sergipe 2+ goals
49%
Sergipe 3+ goals
23%
Barcelona BA 1+ goals
42%
Barcelona BA 2+ goals
10%
Barcelona BA 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Sergipe (draw refunded)
85%
Barcelona BA (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sergipe at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Barcelona BA away — creates 0.29, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sergipe attack 1.29 + Barcelona BA defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Barcelona BA attack 0.29 + Sergipe defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Sergipe scores more
65%
level
24%
Barcelona BA scores more
12%

Sergipe at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Sergipe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
Diki
10'
Matheus Sacramento
23'
Felipe ParaPenalty
80'
Reny Max
85'
Reny Max
Sergipe
Barcelona
Dico Woolley
Manager: Dico Woolley
Carlos Rabello
Manager: Carlos Rabello

Serie D: Sergipe 4–1 Barcelona BA

Sergipe beat Barcelona BA 4-1 in Serie D on June 8, 2025.

Goals: Diki (5'), Matheus Sacramento (10'), Felipe Para (23' pen), Reny Max (80', 85').

The match was played at Estádio Estadual Lourival Baptista in Aracaju, Sergipe.