Barcelona BA 0–1 Sergipe: Result & Stats | Serie D

Barcelona BA

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sergipe

Iago Felipe 32'

Mateus Henrique 2'

6/1/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Mário Pessoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Barcelona BA36%

×Draw30%

Sergipe34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barcelona BAExpected goals in this matchSergipe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.04

Barcelona BA

1.07

Sergipe

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

1.00

creates per match

1.23

0.86

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Barcelona BA

1.00

Sergipe

1.23

allows per match

Barcelona BA

0.86

Sergipe

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barcelona BA+0.00on par

Sergipe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona BA ↓

Sergipe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Barcelona BA or draw

66%

Barcelona BA or Sergipe

70%

Draw or Sergipe

64%

Winning margin

Barcelona BA wins by 2+

14%

Sergipe wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Barcelona BA 1+ goals

66%

Barcelona BA 2+ goals

29%

Barcelona BA 3+ goals

9%

Sergipe 1+ goals

65%

Sergipe 2+ goals

28%

Sergipe 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Barcelona BA (draw refunded)

51%

Sergipe (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona BA at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Sergipe away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona BA attack 1.00 + Sergipe defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

Sergipe attack 1.23 + Barcelona BA defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Barcelona BA scores more

36%

level

30%

Sergipe scores more

34%

Barcelona BA at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Barcelona BA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

Mateus Henrique

32'

Iago Felipe

32'

Iago Felipe

Barcelona

Sergipe

Manager: Carlos Rabello

Manager: Dico Woolley