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Sereď vs Nové Zámky — 3. liga - West 2020

Sereď
Sereď
FT
7 – 1
HT: 6 – 0
Nové Zámky
Nové Zámky
5/13/20233. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 26Štadión Sereď

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Sereď72%
×Draw17%
Nové Zámky11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sereď
2.35
Nové Zámky
0.80

Sereď creates 194% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 70 away

creates per match

Sereď
2.40
Nové Zámky
0.80

allows per match

Sereď
0.80
Nové Zámky
2.30

finishing

Sereď+0.00on par
Nové Zámky+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sereď ↓

Nové Zámky →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Sereď or draw
89%
Sereď or Nové Zámky
83%
Draw or Nové Zámky
28%

Winning margin

Sereď wins by 2+
48%
Nové Zámky wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sereď 1+ goals
90%
Sereď 2+ goals
68%
Sereď 3+ goals
41%
Nové Zámky 1+ goals
55%
Nové Zámky 2+ goals
19%
Nové Zámky 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sereď (draw refunded)
87%
Nové Zámky (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sereď at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

Nové Zámky away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.30 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sereď attack 2.40 + Nové Zámky defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.35

Nové Zámky attack 0.80 + Sereď defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Sereď scores more
72%
level
17%
Nové Zámky scores more
11%

Sereď at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Sereď will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Sereď 7–1 Nové Zámky

Sereď beat Nové Zámky 7-1 in 3. liga - West on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Štadión Sereď in Sereď.