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Nové Zámky vs Sereď — 3. liga - West 2020

Nové Zámky
Nové Zámky
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sereď
Sereď
4/19/20253. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 26Štadión Ladislava Gancznera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Nové Zámky31%
×Draw25%
Sereď44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nové Zámky
1.27
Sereď
1.57

Sereď creates 24% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 46 away

creates per match

Nové Zámky
1.51
Sereď
1.46

allows per match

Nové Zámky
1.68
Sereď
1.02

finishing

Nové Zámky+0.00on par
Sereď+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nové Zámky ↓

Sereď →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Nové Zámky or draw
56%
Nové Zámky or Sereď
75%
Draw or Sereď
69%

Winning margin

Nové Zámky wins by 2+
13%
Sereď wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Nové Zámky 1+ goals
72%
Nové Zámky 2+ goals
36%
Nové Zámky 3+ goals
14%
Sereď 1+ goals
79%
Sereď 2+ goals
46%
Sereď 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Nové Zámky (draw refunded)
41%
Sereď (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nové Zámky at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.68 · 68 matches

Sereď away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.02 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nové Zámky attack 1.51 + Sereď defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sereď attack 1.46 + Nové Zámky defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nové Zámky scores more
31%
level
25%
Sereď scores more
44%

Sereď at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sereď will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nové Zámky vs Sereď

Nové Zámky beat Sereď 1-0 in 3. liga - West on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Štadión Ladislava Gancznera in Nové Zámky.