Sereď 2–1 Inter Bratislava: Result & Stats

Sereď

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Inter Bratislava

4/23/2025

3. liga - West · West - 27Športový futbalový štadión Sereď

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Sereď57%

×Draw22%

Inter Bratislava21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SereďExpected goals in this matchInter Bratislava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.14

Sereď

1.99

Inter Bratislava

1.14

Sereď creates 75% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 31 away

2.40

creates per match

1.48

0.80

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Sereď

2.40

Inter Bratislava

1.48

allows per match

Sereď

0.80

Inter Bratislava

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sereď+0.00on par

Inter Bratislava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sereď ↓

Inter Bratislava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Sereď or draw

79%

Sereď or Inter Bratislava

78%

Draw or Inter Bratislava

43%

Winning margin

Sereď wins by 2+

34%

Inter Bratislava wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sereď 1+ goals

86%

Sereď 2+ goals

59%

Sereď 3+ goals

32%

Inter Bratislava 1+ goals

68%

Inter Bratislava 2+ goals

32%

Inter Bratislava 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sereď (draw refunded)

73%

Inter Bratislava (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sereď at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

Inter Bratislava away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sereď attack 2.40 + Inter Bratislava defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.99

Inter Bratislava attack 1.48 + Sereď defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sereď scores more

57%

level

22%

Inter Bratislava scores more

21%

Sereď at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sereď will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff