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Inter Bratislava vs Sereď — 3. liga - West 2020

Inter Bratislava
Inter Bratislava
FT
1 – 1
Sereď
Sereď
11/12/20223. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 15Športový areál OFK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Inter Bratislava42%
×Draw27%
Sereď32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Bratislava
1.36
Sereď
1.15

Inter Bratislava creates 18% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 46 away

creates per match

Inter Bratislava
1.70
Sereď
1.46

allows per match

Inter Bratislava
0.83
Sereď
1.02

finishing

Inter Bratislava+0.00on par
Sereď+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Bratislava ↓

Sereď →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Inter Bratislava or draw
68%
Inter Bratislava or Sereď
73%
Draw or Sereď
58%

Winning margin

Inter Bratislava wins by 2+
19%
Sereď wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Inter Bratislava 1+ goals
74%
Inter Bratislava 2+ goals
39%
Inter Bratislava 3+ goals
16%
Sereď 1+ goals
68%
Sereď 2+ goals
32%
Sereď 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Inter Bratislava (draw refunded)
57%
Sereď (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Bratislava at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.83 · 30 matches

Sereď away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.02 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Bratislava attack 1.70 + Sereď defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.36

Sereď attack 1.46 + Inter Bratislava defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Inter Bratislava scores more
42%
level
27%
Sereď scores more
32%

Inter Bratislava at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Inter Bratislava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Inter Bratislava 1–1 Sereď

Inter Bratislava and Sereď drew 1-1 in 3. liga - West on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Športový areál OFK in Dunajská Lužná.