Sereď 1–0 Častkovce: Result & Stats

Sereď

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Častkovce

11/16/2024

3. liga - West · West - 17Športový futbalový štadión Sereď

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Sereď60%

×Draw21%

Častkovce19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SereďExpected goals in this matchČastkovce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

1.06

Sereď

2.03

Častkovce

1.06

Sereď creates 92% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 85 away

2.40

creates per match

1.32

0.80

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Sereď

2.40

Častkovce

1.32

allows per match

Sereď

0.80

Častkovce

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sereď+0.00on par

Častkovce+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sereď ↓

Častkovce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Sereď or draw

81%

Sereď or Častkovce

79%

Draw or Častkovce

40%

Winning margin

Sereď wins by 2+

36%

Častkovce wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sereď 1+ goals

87%

Sereď 2+ goals

60%

Sereď 3+ goals

33%

Častkovce 1+ goals

65%

Častkovce 2+ goals

29%

Častkovce 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sereď (draw refunded)

76%

Častkovce (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sereď at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

Častkovce away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.66 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sereď attack 2.40 + Častkovce defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 2.03

Častkovce attack 1.32 + Sereď defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sereď scores more

60%

level

21%

Častkovce scores more

19%

Sereď at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sereď will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff