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Častkovce vs Sereď — 3. liga - West 2020

Častkovce
Častkovce
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sereď
Sereď
3/18/20233. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 18Futbalový štadión Častkovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Častkovce38%
×Draw25%
Sereď37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Častkovce
1.44
Sereď
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 46 away

creates per match

Častkovce
1.85
Sereď
1.46

allows per match

Častkovce
1.38
Sereď
1.02

finishing

Častkovce+0.00on par
Sereď+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Častkovce ↓

Sereď →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Častkovce or draw
63%
Častkovce or Sereď
75%
Draw or Sereď
62%

Winning margin

Častkovce wins by 2+
18%
Sereď wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Častkovce 1+ goals
76%
Častkovce 2+ goals
42%
Častkovce 3+ goals
18%
Sereď 1+ goals
76%
Sereď 2+ goals
41%
Sereď 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Častkovce (draw refunded)
51%
Sereď (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Častkovce at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.38 · 85 matches

Sereď away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.02 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Častkovce attack 1.85 + Sereď defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.44

Sereď attack 1.46 + Častkovce defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Častkovce scores more
38%
level
25%
Sereď scores more
37%

Častkovce at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Častkovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Častkovce 1–1 Sereď

Častkovce and Sereď drew 1-1 in 3. liga - West on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Častkovce in Častkovce.