Serbia 2–0 Switzerland: Result & Stats

Serbia

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Switzerland

A. Mitrović 61'

N. Elvedi 45+1' (OG)

10/12/2024

UEFA Nations League · League A - 3Dubocica Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Serbia66%

×Draw21%

Switzerland13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SerbiaExpected goals in this matchSwitzerland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.74

Serbia

1.96

Switzerland

0.74

Serbia creates 165% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.92

creates per match

0.90

0.58

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Serbia

1.92

Switzerland

0.90

allows per match

Serbia

0.58

Switzerland

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Serbia+0.00on par

Switzerland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serbia ↓

Switzerland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Serbia or draw

87%

Serbia or Switzerland

79%

Draw or Switzerland

34%

Winning margin

Serbia wins by 2+

41%

Switzerland wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Serbia 1+ goals

86%

Serbia 2+ goals

58%

Serbia 3+ goals

31%

Switzerland 1+ goals

52%

Switzerland 2+ goals

17%

Switzerland 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Serbia (draw refunded)

83%

Switzerland (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serbia at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

Switzerland away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serbia attack 1.92 + Switzerland defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.96

Switzerland attack 0.90 + Serbia defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Serbia scores more

66%

level

21%

Switzerland scores more

13%

Serbia at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Serbia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

P. Rajković

Serbia · G

8.0

Match Events

23'

Silvan Widmer

44'

Nico Elvedi

45+1'

N. ElvediOwn goal

46'

L. Jović← M. Grujić

46'

F. Rieder← S. Widmer

53'

S. Zdjelar← S. Lukić

61'

A. Mitrović↳ S. Zdjelar

70'

E. Fernandes← M. Aebischer

70'

U. Garcia← R. Rodríguez

70'

A. Zeqiri← Z. Amdouni

71'

Kosta Nedeljković

73'

J. Šimić← K. Nedeljković

74'

A. Maksimović← A. Mitrović

84'

Jan-Carlo Simić

86'

J. Monteiro← B. Embolo

88'

N. Čumić← V. Birmančević

90+3'

Lazar Samardžić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SerbiaSwitzerland

Overview

33%Possession67%

7Total Shots11

3Corners7

12Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots11

4On Target4

2Off Target3

1Blocked4

6Inside Box7

1Outside Box4

Passing

33%Possession67%

292Total Passes599

227Accurate Passes521

78%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides4