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Serbia vs Switzerland — World Cup 2026

Serbia
Serbia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Switzerland
Switzerland
A. Mitrović 5'
X. Shaqiri 90'
G. Xhaka 52'
6/22/2018World CupWorld Cup · Group Stage - 2Stadion Kaliningrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Serbia32%
×Draw23%
Switzerland45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Serbia
1.43
Switzerland
1.73

Switzerland creates 21% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Serbia
1.00
Switzerland
1.14

allows per match

Serbia
2.33
Switzerland
1.86

finishing

Serbia+0.00on par
Switzerland+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serbia ↓

Switzerland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Serbia or draw
55%
Serbia or Switzerland
77%
Draw or Switzerland
68%

Winning margin

Serbia wins by 2+
14%
Switzerland wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Serbia 1+ goals
76%
Serbia 2+ goals
42%
Serbia 3+ goals
17%
Switzerland 1+ goals
82%
Switzerland 2+ goals
52%
Switzerland 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Serbia (draw refunded)
42%
Switzerland (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serbia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Switzerland away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serbia attack 1.00 + Switzerland defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Switzerland attack 1.14 + Serbia defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Serbia scores more
32%
level
23%
Switzerland scores more
45%

Switzerland at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Switzerland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
D. TadićSerbiaSerbia · M
8.0

Match Events

5'
A. Mitrović↳ D. Tadić
33'
Sergej Milinković-Savić
39'
Luka Milivojević
45'
Nemanja Matić
46'
M. Gavranović← H. Seferović
52'
G. Xhaka
65'
A. Ljajić← F. Kostić
73'
B. Embolo← B. Džemaili
81'
N. Radonjić← L. Milivojević
87'
Aleksandar Mitrović
90'
Xherdan Shaqiri
90+4'
J. Drmic← S. Zuber
90'
X. Shaqiri↳ M. Gavranović

Possession

37%Serbia

Shots

13Serbia

Pass accuracy

47%Serbia

Statistics

SerbiaSwitzerland
Overview
37%Possession63%
13Total Shots20
3Corners7
17Fouls13
Shots
13Total Shots20
3On Target5
8Off Target7
2Blocked8
10Inside Box8
3Outside Box12
Passing
37%Possession63%
308Total Passes535
234Accurate Passes455
76%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls13
4Yellow Cards1
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Serbia vs Switzerland

Switzerland beat Serbia 2-1 in World Cup on June 22, 2018.

Goals: A. Mitrović (5'), G. Xhaka (52'), X. Shaqiri (90').

Switzerland controlled possession (63%) and registered 20 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadion Kaliningrad in Kaliningrad.