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Serbia vs Russia — UEFA Nations League 2018

Serbia
Serbia
FT
5 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Russia
Russia
11/18/2020UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League B - 6Stadion Rajko Mitić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Serbia65%
×Draw19%
Russia16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Serbia
2.26
Russia
1.01

Serbia creates 124% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

creates per match

Serbia
1.92
Russia
1.40

allows per match

Serbia
0.62
Russia
2.60

finishing

Serbia+0.00on par
Russia+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serbia ↓

Russia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Serbia or draw
84%
Serbia or Russia
81%
Draw or Russia
35%

Winning margin

Serbia wins by 2+
42%
Russia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Serbia 1+ goals
89%
Serbia 2+ goals
66%
Serbia 3+ goals
39%
Russia 1+ goals
64%
Russia 2+ goals
27%
Russia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Serbia (draw refunded)
81%
Russia (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serbia at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Russia away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serbia attack 1.92 + Russia defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.26

Russia attack 1.40 + Serbia defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Serbia scores more
65%
level
19%
Russia scores more
16%

Serbia at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Serbia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serbia 5 – 0 Russia

Serbia beat Russia 5-0 in UEFA Nations League on November 18, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Rajko Mitić in Beograd.