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Russia vs Serbia — UEFA Nations League 2018

Russia
Russia
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Serbia
Serbia
9/3/2020UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League B - 1VTB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Russia46%
×Draw31%
Serbia23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Russia
1.17
Serbia
0.74

Russia creates 58% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

Russia
1.20
Serbia
1.08

allows per match

Russia
0.40
Serbia
1.15

finishing

Russia+0.00on par
Serbia+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Russia ↓

Serbia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Russia or draw
77%
Russia or Serbia
69%
Draw or Serbia
54%

Winning margin

Russia wins by 2+
20%
Serbia wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Russia 1+ goals
69%
Russia 2+ goals
33%
Russia 3+ goals
11%
Serbia 1+ goals
52%
Serbia 2+ goals
17%
Serbia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Russia (draw refunded)
66%
Serbia (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Russia at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Serbia away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Russia attack 1.20 + Serbia defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Serbia attack 1.08 + Russia defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Russia scores more
46%
level
31%
Serbia scores more
23%

Russia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Russia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Russia vs Serbia

Russia beat Serbia 3-1 in UEFA Nations League on September 3, 2020.

The match was played at VTB Arena in Moskva.