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Serbia U19 vs Portugal U19 — Friendlies 2026

Serbia U19
Serbia U19
FT
6 – 5
HT: 4 – 2
Portugal U19
Portugal U19
S. Borovina 89', 72'
L. Zaric 28', 25'
D. Rankovic 21'
J. Milosavljevic 7'
F. Silva 85'
A. Patrao 49'
R. Silva 48'
S. Blopa 45'
F. Goncalves 37' (pen)
9/9/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Serbia U1948%
×Draw18%
Portugal U1934%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Serbia U19
3.20
Portugal U19
2.70

Serbia U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Serbia U19
3.40
Portugal U19
3.00

allows per match

Serbia U19
2.40
Portugal U19
3.00

finishing

Serbia U19+0.00on par
Portugal U19+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

89%Yes
  • Yes89
  • No11

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serbia U19 ↓

Portugal U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–23%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–26%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–25%
4–34%
4–43%

Most likely 3–2 (6%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
83%17%4.5
68%32%

Double chance

Serbia U19 or draw
66%
Serbia U19 or Portugal U19
82%
Draw or Portugal U19
52%

Winning margin

Serbia U19 wins by 2+
31%
Portugal U19 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Serbia U19 1+ goals
96%
Serbia U19 2+ goals
82%
Serbia U19 3+ goals
60%
Portugal U19 1+ goals
93%
Portugal U19 2+ goals
75%
Portugal U19 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Serbia U19 (draw refunded)
59%
Portugal U19 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
87%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serbia U19 at home — creates 3.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Portugal U19 away — creates 3.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serbia U19 attack 3.40 + Portugal U19 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.20

Portugal U19 attack 3.00 + Serbia U19 defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Serbia U19 scores more
48%
level
18%
Portugal U19 scores more
34%

Serbia U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Serbia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
J. Milosavljevic
21'
D. Rankovic
25'
L. Zaric
28'
L. Zaric
37'
F. GoncalvesPenalty
45'
S. Blopa
48'
R. Silva
49'
A. Patrao
72'
S. Borovina
85'
F. Silva
89'
S. Borovina

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Serbia U19 vs Portugal U19

Serbia U19 beat Portugal U19 6-5 in Friendlies on September 9, 2025.

Goals: J. Milosavljevic (7'), D. Rankovic (21'), L. Zaric (25', 28'), F. Goncalves (37' pen), S. Blopa (45'), R. Silva (48'), A. Patrao (49'), S. Borovina (72', 89'), F. Silva (85').