Portugal U19 4–1 Serbia U19: Result & Stats

Portugal U19

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Serbia U19

Manuel Mendonça 70'

Vivaldo Semedo 59', 26'

Rodrigo Ribeiro 45+1'

A. Stanković 90+2'

3/23/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 4Estádio Municipal de Aveiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Portugal U1946%

×Draw23%

Serbia U1931%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portugal U19Expected goals in this matchSerbia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.43

Portugal U19

1.79

Serbia U19

1.43

Portugal U19 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

2.00

creates per match

1.79

1.07

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Portugal U19

2.00

Serbia U19

1.79

allows per match

Portugal U19

1.07

Serbia U19

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portugal U19+0.00on par

Serbia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal U19 ↓

Serbia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Portugal U19 or draw

69%

Portugal U19 or Serbia U19

77%

Draw or Serbia U19

54%

Winning margin

Portugal U19 wins by 2+

25%

Serbia U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Portugal U19 1+ goals

83%

Portugal U19 2+ goals

53%

Portugal U19 3+ goals

26%

Serbia U19 1+ goals

76%

Serbia U19 2+ goals

42%

Serbia U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Portugal U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Serbia U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Serbia U19 away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal U19 attack 2.00 + Serbia U19 defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.79

Serbia U19 attack 1.79 + Portugal U19 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Portugal U19 scores more

46%

level

23%

Serbia U19 scores more

31%

Portugal U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Portugal U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

Vivaldo Semedo

37'

M. Lukovic

40'

I. Vasiljevic

45+1'

Rodrigo Ribeiro

46'

M. Aleksić← I. Vasiljević

46'

U. Sremčević← M. Mladenović

54'

A. Vukicevic

59'

Vivaldo Semedo

65'

L. Gomes

67'

B. Mirčetić← M. Luković

70'

Manuel Mendonça

75'

M. Majstorović← J. Šljivić

75'

M. Petrović← Đ. Đekić

79'

Fábio Jaló← Vivaldo Semedo

79'

João Rêgo← Rodrigo Ribeiro

79'

Tomás Marques← Francisco Chissumba

83'

Rafael Luís← Dário Essugo

83'

Ussumane Djaló← Manuel Mendonça

86'

M. Majstorovic

86'

L. Lijeskic

90+2'

A. Stanković

Portugal

Serbia

1

17

4

6

2

▼

Đekić

13

Bukinac

15

▼

Vasiljevi

7

▼

Mladenovi

10

▼

Šljivić

8

⚽

Stanković

9

▼

Luković

12

Fernandes

13

Conceição

18

▼

Chissumba

15

Gomes

3

Alves

5

▼

Essugo

19

Vasconcel

8

⚽

▼

Mendonça

10

Lima

7

⚽

▼

Ribeiro

17

⚽2

▼

Semedo

Manager: José Lima

79'▲Fábio Jaló←▼Vivaldo Semedo

79'▲João Rêgo←▼Rodrigo Ribeiro

79'▲Tomás Marques←▼Francisco Chissumba

83'▲Rafael Luís←▼Dário Essugo

83'▲Ussumane Djaló←▼Manuel Mendonça

Portugal U19 substitutes

11Jaló20Rêgo2Marques6Luís16Djaló14Monteiro1Silva9Varela4Muniz

Manager: R. Krivokapić

46'▲M. Aleksić←▼I. Vasiljević

46'▲U. Sremčević←▼M. Mladenović

67'▲B. Mirčetić←▼M. Luković

75'▲M. Majstorović←▼J. Šljivić

75'▲M. Petrović←▼Đ. Đekić

Serbia U19 substitutes

18Aleksić19Sremčević20Mirčetić5Majstorović14Petrović16Petrović12Veličković3Mirosavić