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Serbia U19 vs Poland U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Serbia U19
Serbia U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Poland U19
Poland U19
M. Cvetkovic 77'
3/31/2026UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationUEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 1Parque Municipal dos Desportos de Fafe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Serbia U1940%
×Draw26%
Poland U1934%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Serbia U19
1.40
Poland U19
1.26

Serbia U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 11 away

creates per match

Serbia U19
1.63
Poland U19
1.36

allows per match

Serbia U19
1.16
Poland U19
1.18

finishing

Serbia U19+0.00on par
Poland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serbia U19 ↓

Poland U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Serbia U19 or draw
66%
Serbia U19 or Poland U19
74%
Draw or Poland U19
60%

Winning margin

Serbia U19 wins by 2+
19%
Poland U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Serbia U19 1+ goals
75%
Serbia U19 2+ goals
41%
Serbia U19 3+ goals
17%
Poland U19 1+ goals
72%
Poland U19 2+ goals
36%
Poland U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Serbia U19 (draw refunded)
54%
Poland U19 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serbia U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Poland U19 away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serbia U19 attack 1.63 + Poland U19 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.40

Poland U19 attack 1.36 + Serbia U19 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Serbia U19 scores more
40%
level
26%
Poland U19 scores more
34%

Serbia U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Serbia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
B. Mazurek
46'
J. Adkonis← B. Mazurek
46'
B. Kostic← S. Petrovic
46'
L. Zaric← L. Zecevic-John
58'
D. Sarapata
60'
M. Szczepaniak← A. Przyborek
60'
S. Gieroba← M. Pawlowski
68'
S. Mladenovic
75'
A. Damjanovic← S. Mladenovic
75'
M. Synos← J. Zbrog
77'
M. Cvetkovic↳ A. Avdic
78'
F. Bzdyl← D. Sarapata
80'
A. Hadzimujovic← A. Maksimovic
85'
K. Falowski
88'
A. Pavlovic← J. Milosavljevic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Serbia U19 1–0 Poland U19

Serbia U19 beat Poland U19 1-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 31, 2026.

Goals: M. Cvetkovic (77').

The match was played at Parque Municipal dos Desportos de Fafe in Fafe.