Poland U19 2–2 Serbia U19: Result & Stats

Poland U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Serbia U19

W. Matyjewicz 87'

J. Šimić 77' (OG)

O. Mimović 59'

M. Petković 32' (pen)

3/28/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 4Baza treningowa KS Cracovia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Poland U1949%

×Draw23%

Serbia U1928%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Poland U19Expected goals in this matchSerbia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.30

Poland U19

1.79

Serbia U19

1.30

Poland U19 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

2.00

creates per match

1.79

0.81

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Poland U19

2.00

Serbia U19

1.79

allows per match

Poland U19

0.81

Serbia U19

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Poland U19+0.00on par

Serbia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland U19 ↓

Serbia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Poland U19 or draw

72%

Poland U19 or Serbia U19

77%

Draw or Serbia U19

51%

Winning margin

Poland U19 wins by 2+

27%

Serbia U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Poland U19 1+ goals

83%

Poland U19 2+ goals

53%

Poland U19 3+ goals

26%

Serbia U19 1+ goals

73%

Serbia U19 2+ goals

37%

Serbia U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Poland U19 (draw refunded)

64%

Serbia U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poland U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Serbia U19 away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poland U19 attack 2.00 + Serbia U19 defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.79

Serbia U19 attack 1.79 + Poland U19 defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Poland U19 scores more

49%

level

23%

Serbia U19 scores more

28%

Poland U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Poland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

M. PetkovićPenalty

33'

J. Jevremovic

34'

M. Petkovic

42'

U. Miladinovic

44'

M. Petkovic

44'

M. Petkovic

45+1'

M. Stjepanović← J. Jevremović

46'

I. Strzałek← D. Bugaj

46'

L. Pitan← A. Kozubal

59'

O. Mimović

62'

J. Mijatovic

68'

V. Djurdjevic

69'

J. Lewicki← M. Brzozowski

69'

S. Mucha← J. Majchrzak

73'

W. Matyjewicz

74'

J. Šimić← U. Miladinović

77'

J. ŠimićOwn goal

85'

A. da Graça Marques← M. Matysik

87'

W. Matyjewicz

88'

M. Milosavić← L. Abadžija

Poland

Serbia

12

Stevanovi

2

Đurđević

4

Leković

15

⚽

Mimović

10

⚽

Petković

14

Miličić

17

▼

Abadžija

8

Mijatović

19

Milošević

20

▼

Miladinov

18

▼

Jevremovi

1

Zych

4

▼

Matysik

11

▼

Brzozowsk

7

▼

Bugaj

2

Drapiński

16

⚽

Matyjewic

10

Urbański

6

▼

Kozubal

14

Oyedele

21

Pieńko

19

▼

Majchrzak

Manager: M. Brosz

46'▲I. Strzałek←▼D. Bugaj

46'▲L. Pitan←▼A. Kozubal

69'▲J. Lewicki←▼M. Brzozowski

69'▲S. Mucha←▼J. Majchrzak

85'▲A. da Graça Marques←▼M. Matysik

Poland U19 substitutes

20Strzałek9Pitan3Lewicki18Mucha13Marques12Bobek17Biniek

Manager: J. Damjanović

45+1'▲M. Stjepanović←▼J. Jevremović

74'▲J. Šimić←▼U. Miladinović

88'▲M. Milosavić←▼L. Abadžija

Serbia U19 substitutes

6Stjepanović22Šimić16Milosavić