Serbia U19 1–3 Israel U19: Result & Stats

Serbia U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Israel U19

V. Đurđević 76'

A. Salman 69'

T. Abed 33' (pen), 24'

3/25/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 3Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Serbia U1935%

×Draw25%

Israel U1940%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Serbia U19Expected goals in this matchIsrael U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.48

Serbia U19

1.38

Israel U19

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

1.63

creates per match

1.79

1.16

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Serbia U19

1.63

Israel U19

1.79

allows per match

Serbia U19

1.16

Israel U19

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Serbia U19+0.00on par

Israel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serbia U19 ↓

Israel U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Serbia U19 or draw

60%

Serbia U19 or Israel U19

75%

Draw or Israel U19

65%

Winning margin

Serbia U19 wins by 2+

16%

Israel U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Serbia U19 1+ goals

75%

Serbia U19 2+ goals

40%

Serbia U19 3+ goals

16%

Israel U19 1+ goals

77%

Israel U19 2+ goals

43%

Israel U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Serbia U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Israel U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serbia U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Israel U19 away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serbia U19 attack 1.63 + Israel U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.38

Israel U19 attack 1.79 + Serbia U19 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Serbia U19 scores more

35%

level

25%

Israel U19 scores more

40%

Israel U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Israel U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

T. Abed

31'

J. Miladinovic

33'

D. Stevanović← J. Jevremović

33'

T. AbedPenalty

37'

V. Radojevic

45'

A. Khalaili

45+1'

B. Kovacevic

45+1'

M. Lazetic

46'

J. Milošević← M. Milosavić

46'

H. Shibli← A. Khalaili

56'

M. Spasojevic

58'

R. Binyamin

60'

M. Petković← M. Spasojević

60'

V. Đurđević← J. Šimić

69'

A. Salman

73'

N. Miličić← B. Kovačević

73'

A. Yona← T. Abed

73'

G. Deznet← I. Feingold

76'

V. Đurđević

78'

H. Shibli

85'

R. Alkokin← A. Lugasi

85'

Y. Laish← A. Salman

88'

V. Djurdjevic

90+4'

R. Nawi

Serbia

Israel

1

Melika

4

Israelov

2

▼

Feingold

3

Harush

13

Kulikov

15

⚽2

▼

Abed

6

Navi

14

Binyamin

20

⚽

▼

Salman

10

▼

Lugasi

7

▼

Khalaili

1

Miladinov

22

▼

Šimić

4

Leković

3

Radojević

5

▼

Kovačević

16

▼

Milosavić

6

Stjepanov

9

Lazetić

7

▼

Spasojevi

8

Mijatović

18

▼

Jevremovi

Manager: J. Damjanović

33'▲D. Stevanović←▼J. Jevremović

46'▲J. Milošević←▼M. Milosavić

60'▲M. Petković←▼M. Spasojević

60'▲V. Đurđević←▼J. Šimić

73'▲N. Miličić←▼B. Kovačević

Serbia U19 substitutes

12Stevanović19Milošević10Petković2Đurđević14Miličić17Abadžija15Mimović

Manager: O. Haim

46'▲H. Shibli←▼A. Khalaili

73'▲A. Yona←▼T. Abed

73'▲G. Deznet←▼I. Feingold

85'▲R. Alkokin←▼A. Lugasi

85'▲Y. Laish←▼A. Salman

Israel U19 substitutes

11Shibli8Yona12Deznet16Alkokin17Laish9Jorno18Amedi5Elgaby19Shimol

Match Recap: Serbia U19 vs Israel U19

Israel U19 beat Serbia U19 3-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 25, 2023.

Goals: T. Abed (24', 33' pen), A. Salman (69'), V. Đurđević (76').

The match was played at Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej in Kraków.

Serbia U19 vs Israel U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Serbia U19 vs Israel U19