Israel U19 2–3 Serbia U19: Result & Stats

Israel U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Serbia U19

Y. Blay 77'

N. Simić 12' (OG)

L. Đorđević 90+3'

N. Simić 62'

L. Jovanović 57'

3/19/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 2Sportsko-Rekreativni Centar Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Israel U1944%

×Draw23%

Serbia U1933%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Israel U19Expected goals in this matchSerbia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.49

Israel U19

1.75

Serbia U19

1.49

Israel U19 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

1.94

creates per match

1.79

1.19

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Israel U19

1.94

Serbia U19

1.79

allows per match

Israel U19

1.19

Serbia U19

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Israel U19+0.00on par

Serbia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Israel U19 ↓

Serbia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Israel U19 or draw

67%

Israel U19 or Serbia U19

77%

Draw or Serbia U19

56%

Winning margin

Israel U19 wins by 2+

23%

Serbia U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Israel U19 1+ goals

83%

Israel U19 2+ goals

52%

Israel U19 3+ goals

25%

Serbia U19 1+ goals

77%

Serbia U19 2+ goals

44%

Serbia U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Israel U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Serbia U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Israel U19 at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

Serbia U19 away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Israel U19 attack 1.94 + Serbia U19 defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.75

Serbia U19 attack 1.79 + Israel U19 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Israel U19 scores more

44%

level

23%

Serbia U19 scores more

33%

Israel U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Israel U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

N. SimićOwn goal

24'

V. Milosavljevic

31'

A. Popović← V. Milosavljević

46'

L. Jovanović← V. Vukojević

49'

L. JovanovicMissed penalty

57'

I. Khalaili

57'

L. Jovanović

60'

U. Sremcevic

60'

D. Dappa← K. Zoabi

62'

N. Simić

69'

L. Đorđević← U. Sremčević

69'

O. Ugrešić← A. Stančić

71'

R. Magur← I. Oli

71'

Y. Blay← L. Hazan

77'

Y. Blay

84'

S. Rakić← A. Bačanin

89'

A. Abu Moch← I. Khalaili

89'

L. Asras← N. Schwartz

90+6'

L. Jovanovic

90+3'

L. Đorđević

Israel

Serbia

12

Jovanović

3

Đurić

4

▼

Milosavlj

5

⚽🥅

Simić

16

Janković

10

Popović

14

▼

Bačanin

17

▼

Stančić

11

Kostov

9

▼

Sremčević

21

▼

Vukojević

18

Shani

5

Lance

2

▼

4

12

6

10

▼

Hazan

8

▼

Oli

11

▼

Zoabi

7

▼

Khalaili

9

Farhi

Manager: O. Haim

60'▲D. Dappa←▼K. Zoabi

71'▲R. Magur←▼I. Oli

71'▲Y. Blay←▼L. Hazan

89'▲A. Abu Moch←▼I. Khalaili

89'▲L. Asras←▼N. Schwartz

Israel U19 substitutes

19Dappa15Magur17Blay20Moch14Asras13Ozana1Levy16Malka3Feingsicht

Manager: A. Luković

31'▲A. Popović←▼V. Milosavljević

46'▲L. Jovanović←▼V. Vukojević

69'▲L. Đorđević←▼U. Sremčević

69'▲O. Ugrešić←▼A. Stančić

84'▲S. Rakić←▼A. Bačanin

Serbia U19 substitutes

6Popović20Jovanović7Đorđević22Ugrešić18Rakić8Mitrović19Mladenović1Džodić13Prodanić