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Serbia U19 vs Croatia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Serbia U19
Serbia U19
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Croatia U19
Croatia U19
P. Covic 87' (pen)
D. Godec 70'
L. Chelfi 9'
7/5/2026UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Group StageThe Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Serbia U1948%
×Draw22%
Croatia U1930%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Serbia U19
1.95
Croatia U19
1.50

Serbia U19 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Serbia U19
2.29
Croatia U19
1.00

allows per match

Serbia U19
2.00
Croatia U19
1.60

finishing

Serbia U19+0.00on par
Croatia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serbia U19 ↓

Croatia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Serbia U19 or draw
70%
Serbia U19 or Croatia U19
78%
Draw or Croatia U19
52%

Winning margin

Serbia U19 wins by 2+
27%
Croatia U19 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Serbia U19 1+ goals
86%
Serbia U19 2+ goals
58%
Serbia U19 3+ goals
31%
Croatia U19 1+ goals
78%
Croatia U19 2+ goals
44%
Croatia U19 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Serbia U19 (draw refunded)
62%
Croatia U19 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serbia U19 at home — creates 2.29, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Croatia U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serbia U19 attack 2.29 + Croatia U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.95

Croatia U19 attack 1.00 + Serbia U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Serbia U19 scores more
48%
level
22%
Croatia U19 scores more
30%

Serbia U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Serbia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
L. Chelfi↳ T. Kusanovic
26'
D. Rankovic
46'
D. Makevic← D. Rankovic
46'
J. Ciric← B. Kostic
46'
A. Damjanovic← A. Pavlovic
63'
M. Zebic
68'
S. Mladenovic← V. Novicic
69'
D. Godec← A. Sutalo
70'
D. Godec
75'
M. Zrilic← P. Smiljanic
78'
J. Milosavljevic
85'
P. Kostelac← N. Mikic
85'
K. Simic← L. Chelfi
85'
I. Kolarik← T. Kusanovic
85'
V. Subotic← L. Zaric
86'
S. Stojkovic
87'
P. CovicPenalty
88'
P. Covic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U19 Championship: Serbia U19 0–3 Croatia U19

Croatia U19 beat Serbia U19 3-0 in UEFA U19 Championship on July 5, 2026.

Goals: L. Chelfi (9'), D. Godec (70'), P. Covic (87' pen).

The match was played at The Oval in Caernarfon.