Croatia U19 0–3 Serbia U19: Result & Stats

Croatia U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Serbia U19

O. Ugrešić 40'

M. Popović 35'

M. Cvetković 6' (pen)

11/19/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 7Stadion Branko Čavlović-Čavlek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Croatia U1950%

×Draw22%

Serbia U1928%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Croatia U19Expected goals in this matchSerbia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.37

Croatia U19

1.91

Serbia U19

1.37

Croatia U19 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 14 away

2.25

creates per match

1.79

0.95

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Croatia U19

2.25

Serbia U19

1.79

allows per match

Croatia U19

0.95

Serbia U19

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Croatia U19+0.00on par

Serbia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croatia U19 ↓

Serbia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Croatia U19 or draw

72%

Croatia U19 or Serbia U19

78%

Draw or Serbia U19

50%

Winning margin

Croatia U19 wins by 2+

28%

Serbia U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Croatia U19 1+ goals

85%

Croatia U19 2+ goals

57%

Croatia U19 3+ goals

30%

Serbia U19 1+ goals

75%

Serbia U19 2+ goals

40%

Serbia U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Croatia U19 (draw refunded)

64%

Serbia U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Croatia U19 at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.95 · 20 matches

Serbia U19 away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Croatia U19 attack 2.25 + Serbia U19 defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.91

Serbia U19 attack 1.79 + Croatia U19 defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Croatia U19 scores more

50%

level

22%

Serbia U19 scores more

28%

Croatia U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Croatia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

M. CvetkovićPenalty

23'

M. Jovicic

35'

M. Popović

40'

O. Ugrešić

42'

O. Lukic

46'

A. Baždarić← M. Subotić

46'

B. Durdov← M. Jovičić

46'

L. Rimac← P. Čović

46'

N. Farkaš← O. Lukić

46'

U. Sremčević← M. Popović

52'

N. Farkas

52'

B. Durdov

60'

A. Subotić← O. Ugrešić

75'

D. Jankovic

80'

L. Chelfi← F. Živković

80'

J. Ćirić← M. Cvetković

80'

V. Vukojević← L. Đorđević

88'

J. Vojnović← S. Rakić

89'

J. Ciric

Croatia

Serbia

12

3

4

5

16

10

⚽

▼

Popović

18

▼

Rakić

22

⚽

▼

Ugrešić

14

Bačanin

7

⚽

▼

Cvetković

19

▼

12

4

6

20

13

19

17

▼

Lukić

15

▼

Čović

14

▼

Subotić

10

▼

Živković

11

▼

Jovičić

Manager: S. Oreščanin

46'▲A. Baždarić←▼M. Subotić

46'▲B. Durdov←▼M. Jovičić

46'▲L. Rimac←▼P. Čović

46'▲N. Farkaš←▼O. Lukić

80'▲L. Chelfi←▼F. Živković

Croatia U19 substitutes

8Baždarić7Durdov9Rimac16Farkaš18Chelfi3Sušak5Utrobičić2Migalić1Bezeljak

Manager: A. Luković

46'▲U. Sremčević←▼M. Popović

60'▲A. Subotić←▼O. Ugrešić

80'▲J. Ćirić←▼M. Cvetković

80'▲V. Vukojević←▼L. Đorđević

88'▲J. Vojnović←▼S. Rakić

Serbia U19 substitutes

9Sremčević20Subotić17Ćirić21Vukojević2Vojnović6Popović8Mitrović11Stojković1Džodić

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Croatia U19 0–3 Serbia U19

Serbia U19 beat Croatia U19 3-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 19, 2024.

Goals: M. Cvetković (6' pen), M. Popović (35'), O. Ugrešić (40').

The match was played at Stadion Branko Čavlović-Čavlek in Karlovac.

Croatia U19 vs Serbia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Croatia U19 0–3 Serbia U19