Seraing United 1–1 Oostende: Result & Stats

Seraing United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Oostende

M. Mouandilmadji 55' (pen)

Z. Medley 90+1'

10/8/2022

Jupiler Pro League · Round 11Stade du Pairay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Seraing United36%

×Draw27%

Oostende38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seraing UnitedExpected goals in this matchOostende

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.31

Seraing United

1.27

Oostende

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 83 away

0.69

creates per match

0.96

1.67

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Seraing United

0.69

Oostende

0.96

allows per match

Seraing United

1.67

Oostende

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Seraing United+0.00on par

Oostende+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seraing United ↓

Oostende →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Seraing United or draw

62%

Seraing United or Oostende

73%

Draw or Oostende

64%

Winning margin

Seraing United wins by 2+

16%

Oostende wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Seraing United 1+ goals

72%

Seraing United 2+ goals

36%

Seraing United 3+ goals

14%

Oostende 1+ goals

73%

Oostende 2+ goals

38%

Oostende 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Seraing United (draw refunded)

49%

Oostende (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seraing United at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.67 · 36 matches

Oostende away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.86 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seraing United attack 0.69 + Oostende defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.27

Oostende attack 0.96 + Seraing United defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Seraing United scores more

36%

level

27%

Oostende scores more

38%

Oostende at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Oostende will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

I. Boonen

Oostende · M

7.6

Match Events

29'

Thierry Ambrose

36'

Mathieu Cachbach

45+1'

Brecht CaponPenalty cancelled

46'

F. Hornby← N. Bätzner

55'

M. MouandilmadjiPenalty

66'

M. Berte← A. Albanese

66'

69'

72'

79'

80'

S. Mvoué← M. Cachbach

85'

Timothy Galje

87'

S. Wylin← T. Ndicka

87'

Z. Medley← C. McGeehan

90+5'

Sérgio Conceição← M. Sambu

90+1'

Z. Medley↳ I. Boonen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SeraingOostende

Overview

42%Possession58%

13Total Shots13

3Corners9

11Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots13

3On Target2

5Off Target5

5Blocked6

7Inside Box9

6Outside Box4

Passing

42%Possession58%

366Total Passes492

254Accurate Passes376

69%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

2Offsides1