Oostende 2–2 Seraing United: Result & Stats

Oostende

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Seraing United

M. Gueye 90+3' (pen)

I. Cissé 39' (OG)

G. Mikautadze 55'

A. Jallow 7'

4/2/2022

Jupiler Pro League · Round 33Diaz Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Oostende45%

×Draw23%

Seraing United32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OostendeExpected goals in this matchSeraing United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.45

Oostende

1.77

Seraing United

1.45

Oostende creates 22% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 36 away

1.34

creates per match

1.11

1.78

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Oostende

1.34

Seraing United

1.11

allows per match

Oostende

1.78

Seraing United

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oostende+0.00on par

Seraing United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oostende ↓

Seraing United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Oostende or draw

68%

Oostende or Seraing United

77%

Draw or Seraing United

55%

Winning margin

Oostende wins by 2+

24%

Seraing United wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Oostende 1+ goals

83%

Oostende 2+ goals

53%

Oostende 3+ goals

26%

Seraing United 1+ goals

77%

Seraing United 2+ goals

42%

Seraing United 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Oostende (draw refunded)

59%

Seraing United (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oostende at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.78 · 83 matches

Seraing United away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oostende attack 1.34 + Seraing United defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.77

Seraing United attack 1.11 + Oostende defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Oostende scores more

45%

level

23%

Seraing United scores more

32%

Oostende at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oostende will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40

D. Opare

Seraing United · M

7.3

Match Events

7'

A. Jallow↳ M. Poaty

22'

V. Koziello← M. DArpino

24'

Vincent Koziello

35'

Morgan Poaty

39'

I. CisséOwn goal

53'

Makhtar Gueye

55'

G. Mikautadze

63'

M. Cachbach← A. Bernier

65'

D. Atanga← Z. Medley

72'

G. Kilota← M. Poaty

72'

M. Mouandilmadji← A. Jallow

77'

I. Boonen← T. Sakamoto

77'

F. Sambu← D. Opare

90'

Alessandro AlbanesePenalty awarded

90+3'

M. GueyePenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OostendeSeraing

Overview

50%Possession50%

13Total Shots7

6Corners4

9Fouls6

Shots

13Total Shots7

2On Target4

4Off Target3

7Blocked0

6Inside Box6

7Outside Box1

Passing

50%Possession50%

422Total Passes426

294Accurate Passes297

70%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls6

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides2