Seraing United vs Kortrijk — Jupiler Pro League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 36+ matches
Seraing United30%
Kortrijk43%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Kortrijk creates 24% more chances
Season form · 36 home / 117 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Seraing United ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Seraing United at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.67 · 36 matches
Kortrijk away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.56 · 117 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Seraing United attack 0.69 + Kortrijk defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.13
Kortrijk attack 1.12 + Seraing United defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.40
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Kortrijk at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Kortrijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
4 previous meetings · small sample
Club Brugge KV
Union St. Gilloise
St. Truiden
Genk
Standard Liege
Anderlecht
Gent
KVC Westerlo
Charleroi
KV Mechelen
Zulte Waregem
Antwerp
Cercle Brugge
OH Leuven
RAAL La Louvière
Dender
Lommel United
Patro Eisden
Beerschot VA
LiègeIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Seraing United host Kortrijk on Friday, 17 December 2021 at 19:45. The match is part of the Jupiler Pro League 2026/2027 season.
Jupiler Pro League: Seraing United 0–2 Kortrijk
Kortrijk beat Seraing United 2-0 in Jupiler Pro League on December 17, 2021.
Goals: A. Palaversa (54'), F. Selemani (59' pen).
Seraing United controlled possession (58%) and registered 9 shots to 6.
The match was played at Stade du Pairay in Seraing.