Kortrijk 2–0 Seraing United: Result & Stats

Kortrijk

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Seraing United

F. Selemani 88' (pen)

T. Chevalier 31'

7/24/2021

Jupiler Pro League · Round 1Guldensporenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Kortrijk46%

×Draw24%

Seraing United30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KortrijkExpected goals in this matchSeraing United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.35

Kortrijk

1.73

Seraing United

1.35

Kortrijk creates 28% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 36 away

1.28

creates per match

1.11

1.59

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Kortrijk

1.28

Seraing United

1.11

allows per match

Kortrijk

1.59

Seraing United

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kortrijk+0.00on par

Seraing United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kortrijk ↓

Seraing United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Kortrijk or draw

70%

Kortrijk or Seraing United

76%

Draw or Seraing United

54%

Winning margin

Kortrijk wins by 2+

25%

Seraing United wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kortrijk 1+ goals

82%

Kortrijk 2+ goals

52%

Kortrijk 3+ goals

25%

Seraing United 1+ goals

74%

Seraing United 2+ goals

39%

Seraing United 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Kortrijk (draw refunded)

61%

Seraing United (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kortrijk at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.59 · 122 matches

Seraing United away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kortrijk attack 1.28 + Seraing United defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.73

Seraing United attack 1.11 + Kortrijk defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kortrijk scores more

46%

level

24%

Seraing United scores more

30%

Kortrijk at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kortrijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

M. Ilić

Kortrijk · G

7.9

Match Events

28'

Timothy Derijck

31'

T. Chevalier↳ L. Rougeaux

44'

Kevin Vandendriessche

51'

Lucas Rougeaux

54'

Marius Mouandilmadji

63'

E. Ocansey← M. Moreno

64'

H. Guèye← M. Badamosi

66'

G. Kilota← M. Poaty

73'

M. Jonckheere← T. Chevalier

76'

I. Cissé← B. Boulenger

80'

T. Pierrot← S. Lahssaini

86'

Yahya Nadrani

88'

F. SelemaniPenalty

90+4'

Ante Palaversa

90+1'

M. Fixelles← F. Selemani

90'

J. Herrmann← K. Vandendriessche

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KortrijkSeraing

Overview

52%Possession48%

9Total Shots9

2Corners2

16Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots9

4On Target4

4Off Target3

1Blocked2

8Inside Box4

1Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

381Total Passes351

277Accurate Passes261

73%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls15

4Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1