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Seraing United vs AS Eupen — League #145 2026

Seraing United
Seraing United
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
AS Eupen
AS Eupen
P. Fall 11'
E. Gedikli 78'
Y. Van Genechten 53'
10/5/2024League #145League #145 · Round 7Stade du Pairay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Seraing United28%
×Draw26%
AS Eupen46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seraing United
1.09
AS Eupen
1.48

AS Eupen creates 36% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

creates per match

Seraing United
0.88
AS Eupen
1.46

allows per match

Seraing United
1.50
AS Eupen
1.31

finishing

Seraing United+0.00on par
AS Eupen+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seraing United ↓

AS Eupen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Seraing United or draw
54%
Seraing United or AS Eupen
74%
Draw or AS Eupen
72%

Winning margin

Seraing United wins by 2+
11%
AS Eupen wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Seraing United 1+ goals
66%
Seraing United 2+ goals
30%
Seraing United 3+ goals
10%
AS Eupen 1+ goals
77%
AS Eupen 2+ goals
43%
AS Eupen 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Seraing United (draw refunded)
38%
AS Eupen (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seraing United at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

AS Eupen away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seraing United attack 0.88 + AS Eupen defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.09

AS Eupen attack 1.46 + Seraing United defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Seraing United scores more
28%
level
26%
AS Eupen scores more
46%

AS Eupen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "AS Eupen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
P. FallSeraing UnitedSeraing United · F
7.9

Match Events

11'
P. Fall↳ R. Droehnlé
45+2'
Nils Schouterden
47'
Mathieu Cachbach
53'
Y. Van Genechten↳ A. Keita
61'
Miloš Pantović
62'
M. Camara← S. Faye
63'
B. Çalışkan← M. Pantović
64'
E. Gedikli← N. Bitumazala
64'
J. Déom← R. Emond
70'
G. Alalabang← M. Cachbach
70'
M. Allione← Y. Lawson
78'
E. Gedikli↳ J. Déom
81'
T. Alloh← S. Pattynama
82'
Teddy Alloh
83'
S. Marloye← R. Droehnlé
88'
J. Gorenc← Regan Charles-Cook

Possession

37%Seraing

Shots

9Seraing

Pass accuracy

46%Seraing

Statistics

SeraingAS
Overview
37%Possession63%
9Total Shots11
2Corners10
14Fouls16
Shots
9Total Shots11
4On Target3
5Off Target1
0Blocked7
6Inside Box9
3Outside Box2
Passing
37%Possession63%
283Total Passes498
205Accurate Passes413
72%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls16
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides7

League #145: Seraing United 1–2 AS Eupen

AS Eupen beat Seraing United 2-1 in League #145 on October 5, 2024.

Goals: P. Fall (11'), Y. Van Genechten (53'), E. Gedikli (78').

AS Eupen controlled possession (63%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stade du Pairay in Seraing.