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AS Eupen vs Seraing United — League #145 2026

AS Eupen
AS Eupen
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Seraing United
Seraing United
A. Oguns 90'
S. Kennedy 5'
D. Diarra 46'
4/12/2025League #145League #145 · Round 29Kehrwegstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

AS Eupen53%
×Draw29%
Seraing United18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Eupen
1.31
Seraing United
0.64

AS Eupen creates 105% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

creates per match

AS Eupen
1.62
Seraing United
0.50

allows per match

AS Eupen
0.77
Seraing United
1.00

finishing

AS Eupen+0.00on par
Seraing United+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Eupen ↓

Seraing United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

AS Eupen or draw
82%
AS Eupen or Seraing United
71%
Draw or Seraing United
47%

Winning margin

AS Eupen wins by 2+
25%
Seraing United wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

AS Eupen 1+ goals
73%
AS Eupen 2+ goals
38%
AS Eupen 3+ goals
14%
Seraing United 1+ goals
47%
Seraing United 2+ goals
14%
Seraing United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

AS Eupen (draw refunded)
74%
Seraing United (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Eupen at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Seraing United away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Eupen attack 1.62 + Seraing United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Seraing United attack 0.50 + AS Eupen defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

AS Eupen scores more
53%
level
29%
Seraing United scores more
18%

AS Eupen at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "AS Eupen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
S. KennedyAS EupenAS Eupen · D
8.3

Match Events

5'
S. Kennedy↳ J. Déom
19'
Ade Oguns
31'
Andrea Piron
46'
M. Cachbach← N. Bouchentouf
46'
D. Diarra↳ M. Allione
62'
Y. Lawson← B. Boukteb
62'
M. Camara← S. Perrey
67'
B. Baiye← J. Déom
67'
L. Dalla Costa← P. Ejike
70'
Mathieu Cachbach
73'
C. Ndiaye← P. Ouotro
82'
M. Pantović← B. Çalışkan
82'
I. Plastun← S. Kennedy
84'
N. Serwy← M. Allione
90+2'
R. Emond← A. Oguns
90'
A. Oguns↳ M. Pantović

Possession

45%AS

Shots

12AS

Pass accuracy

49%AS

Statistics

ASSeraing
Overview
45%Possession55%
12Total Shots17
5Corners8
6Fouls14
Shots
12Total Shots17
7On Target6
3Off Target5
2Blocked6
11Inside Box13
1Outside Box4
Passing
45%Possession55%
315Total Passes391
239Accurate Passes313
76%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
5Saves5
Discipline
6Fouls14
1Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
1Offsides2

League #145: AS Eupen 2–1 Seraing United

AS Eupen beat Seraing United 2-1 in League #145 on April 12, 2025.

Goals: S. Kennedy (5'), D. Diarra (46'), A. Oguns (90').

Seraing United controlled possession (55%) and registered 17 shots to 12.

The match was played at Kehrwegstadion in Eupen.