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Septemvri Tervel vs Kubrat — Third League - Northeast 2018

Septemvri Tervel
Septemvri Tervel
CANC
14:00
Kubrat
Kubrat
5/3/2025Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Septemvri Tervel84%
×Draw10%
Kubrat5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Tervel
3.17
Kubrat
0.69

Septemvri Tervel creates 359% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 46 away

creates per match

Septemvri Tervel
2.80
Kubrat
0.74

allows per match

Septemvri Tervel
0.64
Kubrat
3.54

finishing

Septemvri Tervel+0.00on par
Kubrat+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Tervel ↓

Kubrat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (12%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Septemvri Tervel or draw
95%
Septemvri Tervel or Kubrat
90%
Draw or Kubrat
16%

Winning margin

Septemvri Tervel wins by 2+
66%
Kubrat wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Septemvri Tervel 1+ goals
96%
Septemvri Tervel 2+ goals
82%
Septemvri Tervel 3+ goals
60%
Kubrat 1+ goals
50%
Kubrat 2+ goals
15%
Kubrat 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Tervel (draw refunded)
94%
Kubrat (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Tervel at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.64 · 104 matches

Kubrat away — creates 0.74, concedes 3.54 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Tervel attack 2.80 + Kubrat defence 3.54 → ÷2 → 3.17

Kubrat attack 0.74 + Septemvri Tervel defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Septemvri Tervel scores more
84%
level
10%
Kubrat scores more
5%

Septemvri Tervel at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Septemvri Tervel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Septemvri Tervel vs Kubrat — Match Preview

Septemvri Tervel face Kubrat on May 3, 2025 in this Third League - Northeast fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.