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Kubrat vs Septemvri Tervel — Third League - Northeast 2018

Kubrat
Kubrat
CANC
14:00
Septemvri Tervel
Septemvri Tervel
5/16/2021Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 28Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Kubrat16%
×Draw22%
Septemvri Tervel62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kubrat
0.81
Septemvri Tervel
1.87

Septemvri Tervel creates 131% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 104 away

creates per match

Kubrat
0.74
Septemvri Tervel
1.60

allows per match

Kubrat
2.14
Septemvri Tervel
0.88

finishing

Kubrat+0.00on par
Septemvri Tervel+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kubrat ↓

Septemvri Tervel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–212%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kubrat or draw
38%
Kubrat or Septemvri Tervel
78%
Draw or Septemvri Tervel
84%

Winning margin

Kubrat wins by 2+
5%
Septemvri Tervel wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Kubrat 1+ goals
56%
Kubrat 2+ goals
19%
Kubrat 3+ goals
5%
Septemvri Tervel 1+ goals
85%
Septemvri Tervel 2+ goals
56%
Septemvri Tervel 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Kubrat (draw refunded)
20%
Septemvri Tervel (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kubrat at home — creates 0.74, concedes 2.14 · 50 matches

Septemvri Tervel away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.88 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kubrat attack 0.74 + Septemvri Tervel defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.81

Septemvri Tervel attack 1.60 + Kubrat defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Kubrat scores more
16%
level
22%
Septemvri Tervel scores more
62%

Septemvri Tervel at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Septemvri Tervel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kubrat host Septemvri Tervel

May 16, 2021: Kubrat take on Septemvri Tervel in Third League - Northeast. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Kubrat host Septemvri Tervel at Gradski stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.