Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Septemvri Tervel vs Hitrino — Third League - Northeast 2018

Septemvri Tervel
Septemvri Tervel
FT
2 – 1
Hitrino
Hitrino
10/12/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 9Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Septemvri Tervel72%
×Draw17%
Hitrino10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Tervel
2.25
Hitrino
0.70

Septemvri Tervel creates 221% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 24 away

creates per match

Septemvri Tervel
2.80
Hitrino
0.75

allows per match

Septemvri Tervel
0.64
Hitrino
1.71

finishing

Septemvri Tervel+0.00on par
Hitrino+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Tervel ↓

Hitrino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Septemvri Tervel or draw
90%
Septemvri Tervel or Hitrino
83%
Draw or Hitrino
28%

Winning margin

Septemvri Tervel wins by 2+
48%
Hitrino wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Septemvri Tervel 1+ goals
89%
Septemvri Tervel 2+ goals
65%
Septemvri Tervel 3+ goals
39%
Hitrino 1+ goals
50%
Hitrino 2+ goals
16%
Hitrino 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Tervel (draw refunded)
88%
Hitrino (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Tervel at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.64 · 104 matches

Hitrino away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Tervel attack 2.80 + Hitrino defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.25

Hitrino attack 0.75 + Septemvri Tervel defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Septemvri Tervel scores more
72%
level
17%
Hitrino scores more
10%

Septemvri Tervel at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Septemvri Tervel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Septemvri Tervel 2–1 Hitrino

Septemvri Tervel beat Hitrino 2-1 in Third League - Northeast on October 12, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Tervel.