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Hitrino vs Septemvri Tervel — Third League - Northeast 2018

Hitrino
Hitrino
FT
0 – 3
Septemvri Tervel
Septemvri Tervel
4/4/2020Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 22Stadion Hitrino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Hitrino37%
×Draw25%
Septemvri Tervel38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hitrino
1.42
Septemvri Tervel
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 104 away

creates per match

Hitrino
1.96
Septemvri Tervel
1.60

allows per match

Hitrino
1.30
Septemvri Tervel
0.88

finishing

Hitrino+0.00on par
Septemvri Tervel+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hitrino ↓

Septemvri Tervel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hitrino or draw
62%
Hitrino or Septemvri Tervel
75%
Draw or Septemvri Tervel
63%

Winning margin

Hitrino wins by 2+
17%
Septemvri Tervel wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hitrino 1+ goals
76%
Hitrino 2+ goals
41%
Hitrino 3+ goals
17%
Septemvri Tervel 1+ goals
77%
Septemvri Tervel 2+ goals
42%
Septemvri Tervel 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Hitrino (draw refunded)
49%
Septemvri Tervel (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hitrino at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

Septemvri Tervel away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.88 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hitrino attack 1.96 + Septemvri Tervel defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.42

Septemvri Tervel attack 1.60 + Hitrino defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hitrino scores more
37%
level
25%
Septemvri Tervel scores more
38%

Septemvri Tervel at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Septemvri Tervel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hitrino vs Septemvri Tervel

Septemvri Tervel beat Hitrino 3-0 in Third League - Northeast on April 4, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Hitrino in Hitrino.