Septemvri Tervel 4–1 Dunav ot Ruse II

Septemvri Tervel

FT

4 – 1

Dunav ot Ruse II

4/20/2024

Third League - Northeast · Northeast - 24Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Septemvri Tervel81%

×Draw13%

Dunav ot Ruse II7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Septemvri TervelExpected goals in this matchDunav ot Ruse II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.83

0.69

Septemvri Tervel

2.83

Dunav ot Ruse II

0.69

Septemvri Tervel creates 310% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 27 away

2.80

creates per match

0.74

0.64

allows per match

2.85

creates per match

Septemvri Tervel

2.80

Dunav ot Ruse II

0.74

allows per match

Septemvri Tervel

0.64

Dunav ot Ruse II

2.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Septemvri Tervel+0.00on par

Dunav ot Ruse II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Tervel ↓

Dunav ot Ruse II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Septemvri Tervel or draw

93%

Septemvri Tervel or Dunav ot Ruse II

87%

Draw or Dunav ot Ruse II

19%

Winning margin

Septemvri Tervel wins by 2+

61%

Dunav ot Ruse II wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Septemvri Tervel 1+ goals

94%

Septemvri Tervel 2+ goals

77%

Septemvri Tervel 3+ goals

53%

Dunav ot Ruse II 1+ goals

50%

Dunav ot Ruse II 2+ goals

15%

Dunav ot Ruse II 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Tervel (draw refunded)

92%

Dunav ot Ruse II (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Tervel at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.64 · 104 matches

Dunav ot Ruse II away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Tervel attack 2.80 + Dunav ot Ruse II defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.83

Dunav ot Ruse II attack 0.74 + Septemvri Tervel defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Septemvri Tervel scores more

81%

level

13%

Dunav ot Ruse II scores more

7%

Septemvri Tervel at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Septemvri Tervel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff