Dunav ot Ruse II 0–1 Septemvri Tervel

Dunav ot Ruse II

FT

0 – 1

Septemvri Tervel

9/4/2022

Third League - Northeast · Northeast - 4Stadion Dunav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Dunav ot Ruse II23%

×Draw24%

Septemvri Tervel54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunav ot Ruse IIExpected goals in this matchSeptemvri Tervel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.73

Dunav ot Ruse II

1.03

Septemvri Tervel

1.73

Septemvri Tervel creates 68% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 104 away

1.19

creates per match

1.60

1.85

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Dunav ot Ruse II

1.19

Septemvri Tervel

1.60

allows per match

Dunav ot Ruse II

1.85

Septemvri Tervel

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunav ot Ruse II+0.00on par

Septemvri Tervel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav ot Ruse II ↓

Septemvri Tervel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Dunav ot Ruse II or draw

46%

Dunav ot Ruse II or Septemvri Tervel

76%

Draw or Septemvri Tervel

77%

Winning margin

Dunav ot Ruse II wins by 2+

8%

Septemvri Tervel wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Dunav ot Ruse II 1+ goals

64%

Dunav ot Ruse II 2+ goals

28%

Dunav ot Ruse II 3+ goals

9%

Septemvri Tervel 1+ goals

82%

Septemvri Tervel 2+ goals

52%

Septemvri Tervel 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Dunav ot Ruse II (draw refunded)

30%

Septemvri Tervel (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav ot Ruse II at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.85 · 27 matches

Septemvri Tervel away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.88 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav ot Ruse II attack 1.19 + Septemvri Tervel defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.03

Septemvri Tervel attack 1.60 + Dunav ot Ruse II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Dunav ot Ruse II scores more

23%

level

24%

Septemvri Tervel scores more

54%

Septemvri Tervel at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Septemvri Tervel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff