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Septemvri Tervel vs Dobrudzha — Third League - Northeast 2018

Septemvri Tervel
Septemvri Tervel
FT
1 – 3
Dobrudzha
Dobrudzha
11/30/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 15Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Septemvri Tervel36%
×Draw22%
Dobrudzha43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Tervel
1.77
Dobrudzha
1.95

Dobrudzha creates 10% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 8 away

creates per match

Septemvri Tervel
2.80
Dobrudzha
3.25

allows per match

Septemvri Tervel
0.64
Dobrudzha
0.75

finishing

Septemvri Tervel+0.00on par
Dobrudzha+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Tervel ↓

Dobrudzha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Septemvri Tervel or draw
57%
Septemvri Tervel or Dobrudzha
78%
Draw or Dobrudzha
64%

Winning margin

Septemvri Tervel wins by 2+
18%
Dobrudzha wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Septemvri Tervel 1+ goals
83%
Septemvri Tervel 2+ goals
53%
Septemvri Tervel 3+ goals
26%
Dobrudzha 1+ goals
86%
Dobrudzha 2+ goals
58%
Dobrudzha 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Tervel (draw refunded)
46%
Dobrudzha (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Tervel at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.64 · 104 matches

Dobrudzha away — creates 3.25, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Tervel attack 2.80 + Dobrudzha defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.77

Dobrudzha attack 3.25 + Septemvri Tervel defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Septemvri Tervel scores more
36%
level
22%
Dobrudzha scores more
43%

Dobrudzha at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dobrudzha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Septemvri Tervel 1–3 Dobrudzha

Dobrudzha beat Septemvri Tervel 3-1 in Third League - Northeast on November 30, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Tervel.