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Dobrudzha vs Septemvri Tervel — Third League - Northeast 2018

Dobrudzha
Dobrudzha
FT
1 – 0
Septemvri Tervel
Septemvri Tervel
8/17/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 2Stadion Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dobrudzha68%
×Draw19%
Septemvri Tervel13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobrudzha
2.23
Septemvri Tervel
0.87

Dobrudzha creates 156% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 104 away

creates per match

Dobrudzha
3.57
Septemvri Tervel
1.60

allows per match

Dobrudzha
0.14
Septemvri Tervel
0.88

finishing

Dobrudzha+0.00on par
Septemvri Tervel+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrudzha ↓

Septemvri Tervel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dobrudzha or draw
87%
Dobrudzha or Septemvri Tervel
81%
Draw or Septemvri Tervel
32%

Winning margin

Dobrudzha wins by 2+
44%
Septemvri Tervel wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Dobrudzha 1+ goals
89%
Dobrudzha 2+ goals
65%
Dobrudzha 3+ goals
38%
Septemvri Tervel 1+ goals
58%
Septemvri Tervel 2+ goals
22%
Septemvri Tervel 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)
84%
Septemvri Tervel (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrudzha at home — creates 3.57, concedes 0.14 · 7 matches

Septemvri Tervel away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.88 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrudzha attack 3.57 + Septemvri Tervel defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 2.23

Septemvri Tervel attack 1.60 + Dobrudzha defence 0.14 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Dobrudzha scores more
68%
level
19%
Septemvri Tervel scores more
13%

Dobrudzha at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Dobrudzha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dobrudzha 1 – 0 Septemvri Tervel

Dobrudzha beat Septemvri Tervel 1-0 in Third League - Northeast on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Druzhba in Dobrich.