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Septemvri Tervel vs Cherno more II — Third League - Northeast 2018

Septemvri Tervel
Septemvri Tervel
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cherno more II
Cherno more II
11/23/2025Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Septemvri Tervel53%
×Draw22%
Cherno more II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Tervel
1.92
Cherno more II
1.26

Septemvri Tervel creates 52% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 58 away

creates per match

Septemvri Tervel
2.80
Cherno more II
1.88

allows per match

Septemvri Tervel
0.64
Cherno more II
1.03

finishing

Septemvri Tervel+0.00on par
Cherno more II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Tervel ↓

Cherno more II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Septemvri Tervel or draw
75%
Septemvri Tervel or Cherno more II
78%
Draw or Cherno more II
47%

Winning margin

Septemvri Tervel wins by 2+
30%
Cherno more II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Septemvri Tervel 1+ goals
85%
Septemvri Tervel 2+ goals
57%
Septemvri Tervel 3+ goals
30%
Cherno more II 1+ goals
72%
Cherno more II 2+ goals
36%
Cherno more II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Tervel (draw refunded)
68%
Cherno more II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Tervel at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.64 · 104 matches

Cherno more II away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.03 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Tervel attack 2.80 + Cherno more II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.92

Cherno more II attack 1.88 + Septemvri Tervel defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Septemvri Tervel scores more
53%
level
22%
Cherno more II scores more
25%

Septemvri Tervel at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Septemvri Tervel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Septemvri Tervel 2 – 0 Cherno more II

Septemvri Tervel beat Cherno more II 2-0 in Third League - Northeast on November 23, 2025.