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Cherno more II vs Septemvri Tervel — Third League - Northeast 2018

Cherno more II
Cherno more II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Septemvri Tervel
Septemvri Tervel
5/11/2024Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 27Cherno More Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Cherno more II37%
×Draw26%
Septemvri Tervel37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cherno more II
1.37
Septemvri Tervel
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 104 away

creates per match

Cherno more II
1.86
Septemvri Tervel
1.60

allows per match

Cherno more II
1.12
Septemvri Tervel
0.88

finishing

Cherno more II+0.00on par
Septemvri Tervel+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cherno more II ↓

Septemvri Tervel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Cherno more II or draw
63%
Cherno more II or Septemvri Tervel
74%
Draw or Septemvri Tervel
63%

Winning margin

Cherno more II wins by 2+
17%
Septemvri Tervel wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Cherno more II 1+ goals
75%
Cherno more II 2+ goals
40%
Cherno more II 3+ goals
16%
Septemvri Tervel 1+ goals
74%
Septemvri Tervel 2+ goals
39%
Septemvri Tervel 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Cherno more II (draw refunded)
50%
Septemvri Tervel (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cherno more II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

Septemvri Tervel away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.88 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cherno more II attack 1.86 + Septemvri Tervel defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.37

Septemvri Tervel attack 1.60 + Cherno more II defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cherno more II scores more
37%
level
26%
Septemvri Tervel scores more
37%

Cherno more II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cherno more II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Cherno more II 2–1 Septemvri Tervel

Cherno more II beat Septemvri Tervel 2-1 in Third League - Northeast on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Cherno More Sports Complex in Varna.