Septemvri Sofia 3–1 Pomorie: Result & Stats

Septemvri Sofia

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Pomorie

G. Rusev 88'

P. Yordanov 67'

B. Galchev 38'

T. Kanev 68'

11/23/2019

Second League · Round 16Stadion Dragalevtsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Septemvri Sofia72%

×Draw18%

Pomorie10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Septemvri SofiaExpected goals in this matchPomorie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.64

Septemvri Sofia

2.17

Pomorie

0.64

Septemvri Sofia creates 239% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 15 away

2.02

creates per match

0.47

0.81

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Septemvri Sofia

2.02

Pomorie

0.47

allows per match

Septemvri Sofia

0.81

Pomorie

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Septemvri Sofia+0.00on par

Pomorie+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Sofia ↓

Pomorie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Septemvri Sofia or draw

90%

Septemvri Sofia or Pomorie

82%

Draw or Pomorie

28%

Winning margin

Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+

48%

Pomorie wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals

89%

Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals

64%

Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals

36%

Pomorie 1+ goals

47%

Pomorie 2+ goals

14%

Pomorie 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)

88%

Pomorie (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Sofia at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.81 · 52 matches

Pomorie away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Sofia attack 2.02 + Pomorie defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Pomorie attack 0.47 + Septemvri Sofia defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Septemvri Sofia scores more

72%

level

18%

Pomorie scores more

10%

Septemvri Sofia at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Septemvri Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

S. Nikolov← V. Nikolov

38'

B. Galchev

67'

P. Yordanov

68'

T. Kanev

73'

R. Kasabov← D. Zakonov

85'

B. Rasim← W. Grimaud

88'

G. Rusev

90'

P. Petkov← B. Galchev

90'

S. Gavrilov← I. Tilev

Septemvri

Pomorie

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

Manager: M. Radukanov

37'▲S. Nikolov←▼V. Nikolov

90'▲P. Petkov←▼B. Galchev

90'▲S. Gavrilov←▼I. Tilev

Septemvri Sofia substitutes

NikolovPetkovGavrilovTodorovDimitrovStoyanovPopov

Manager: M. Orachev

73'▲R. Kasabov←▼D. Zakonov

85'▲B. Rasim←▼W. Grimaud

Pomorie substitutes

KasabovRasimLemperovKoevSheytanovHadzhievZhekov