Pomorie vs Septemvri Sofia — Second League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 15+ matches
Pomorie17%
Septemvri Sofia61%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Septemvri Sofia creates 119% more chances
Season form · 15 home / 55 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Pomorie ↓
Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Pomorie at home — creates 0.73, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches
Septemvri Sofia away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.00 · 55 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Pomorie attack 0.73 + Septemvri Sofia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86
Septemvri Sofia attack 1.55 + Pomorie defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.88
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 61%?"
Septemvri Sofia at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 61% does not mean "Septemvri Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
2 previous meetings · small sample
Dunav Ruse
Yantra 2019
Fratria
Vihren
CSKA Sofia II
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Ludogorets II
Marek
Hebar 1918
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Spartak Pleven
Sportist Svoge
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Sevlievo
FK Minyor Pernik
BelasitsaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Pomorie host Septemvri Sofia on Friday, 15 May 2020 at 00:00. The match is part of the Second League 2018/2019 season.
Preview: Pomorie host Septemvri Sofia
May 15, 2020: Pomorie take on Septemvri Sofia in Second League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.
Pomorie host Septemvri Sofia at Gradski stadion.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.