Septemvri Sofia 1–2 Levski Sofia: Result & Stats

Septemvri Sofia

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Levski Sofia

B. Fourrier 43'

M. Sangare 82' (pen)

R. Kirilov 69'

7/27/2025

First League · Round 2Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Septemvri Sofia25%

×Draw26%

Levski Sofia49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Septemvri SofiaExpected goals in this matchLevski Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.50

Septemvri Sofia

1.00

Levski Sofia

1.50

Levski Sofia creates 50% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 22 away

1.37

creates per match

1.41

1.59

allows per match

0.62

creates per match

Septemvri Sofia

1.37

Levski Sofia

1.41

allows per match

Septemvri Sofia

1.59

Levski Sofia

0.62

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

+0.45scores more than expected

finishing

Septemvri Sofia-0.60scores less

Levski Sofia+0.45scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Sofia ↓

Levski Sofia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Septemvri Sofia or draw

51%

Septemvri Sofia or Levski Sofia

74%

Draw or Levski Sofia

75%

Winning margin

Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+

9%

Levski Sofia wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals

63%

Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals

26%

Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals

8%

Levski Sofia 1+ goals

78%

Levski Sofia 2+ goals

44%

Levski Sofia 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)

34%

Levski Sofia (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Sofia at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.59 · 13 matches

Levski Sofia away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.62 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Sofia attack 1.37 + Levski Sofia defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.00

Levski Sofia attack 1.41 + Septemvri Sofia defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Septemvri Sofia scores more

25%

level

26%

Levski Sofia scores more

49%

Levski Sofia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Levski Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

M. Sangare

Levski Sofia · F

7.9

Match Events

43'

B. Fourrier↳ K. Serber

46'

60'

61'

63'

63'

A. Mitkov← P. Myslovic

63'

R. Kirilov← C. Ohene

69'

R. Kirilov

71'

M. Sangare← Everton Bala

72'

S. Stoichkov← G. Ivanov

73'

B. Marinov← K. Serber

82'

M. SangarePenalty

83'

R. Schouten← M. Parra

87'

A. Dzhamov← Z. A. Atanasov

89'

Victor Ochayi

89'

Borislav Rupanov

90+1'

Asen Mitkov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SeptemvriLevski

Overview

36%Possession64%

7Total Shots13

0.77Expected Goals (xG)1.44

4Corners3

7Fouls14

Shots

7Total Shots13

3On Target5

3Off Target8

1Blocked0

5Inside Box8

2Outside Box5

Passing

36%Possession64%

279Total Passes532

216Accurate Passes450

77%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

0Offsides0