Levski Sofia 2–3 Septemvri Sofia: Result & Stats

Levski Sofia

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Septemvri Sofia

K. Dimitrov 66'

M. Petkov 4'

B. Rupanov 71', 41'

A. Chandarov 45+2'

11/9/2024

First League · Round 15Vivacom Arena - Georgi Asparuhov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Levski Sofia66%

×Draw20%

Septemvri Sofia14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levski SofiaExpected goals in this matchSeptemvri Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.78

Levski Sofia

2.00

Septemvri Sofia

0.78

Levski Sofia creates 156% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 16 away

2.05

creates per match

0.96

0.61

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Levski Sofia

2.05

Septemvri Sofia

0.96

allows per match

Levski Sofia

0.61

Septemvri Sofia

1.96

+0.07on par

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

Levski Sofia+0.07on par

Septemvri Sofia-0.33scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Sofia ↓

Septemvri Sofia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Levski Sofia or draw

86%

Levski Sofia or Septemvri Sofia

80%

Draw or Septemvri Sofia

34%

Winning margin

Levski Sofia wins by 2+

41%

Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Levski Sofia 1+ goals

86%

Levski Sofia 2+ goals

59%

Levski Sofia 3+ goals

32%

Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals

54%

Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals

18%

Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Levski Sofia (draw refunded)

83%

Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Sofia at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.61 · 26 matches

Septemvri Sofia away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.96 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Sofia attack 2.05 + Septemvri Sofia defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.00

Septemvri Sofia attack 0.96 + Levski Sofia defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Levski Sofia scores more

66%

level

20%

Septemvri Sofia scores more

14%

Levski Sofia at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Levski Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

22'

30'

41'

45+2'

46'

M. Sangaré← Fábio Lima

46'

P. Galchev← Aldair

56'

Carlos Ohene

64'

C. Ikenna← C. Ohene

64'

H. Fadiga← Jawad El Jemili

66'

K. Dimitrov

68'

N. Drosev← M. Polendakov

68'

M. Morán← K. Serber

71'

B. Rupanov

80'

P. Myslovič← M. Petkov

83'

M. Achol← B. Rupanov

90+4'

Dimitar Sheytanov

90+4'

G. Varbanov← M. Mitkov

Levski3-5-2

Septemvri5-3-2

11

⚽2

▼

Rupanov

15

Fourrier

16

▼

Serber

17

Amade

9

⚽

Chandarov

19

▼

18

26

6

5

▼

21

44

4

50

⚽

Dimitrov

6

Tsunami

17

Bala

8

▼

Ohene

11

▼

Jemili

88

⚽

▼

Petkov

21

▼

Aldair

9

Kolev

7

▼

Lima

Manager: S. Genchev

46'▲M. Sangaré←▼Fábio Lima

46'▲P. Galchev←▼Aldair

64'▲C. Ikenna←▼C. Ohene

64'▲H. Fadiga←▼Jawad El Jemili

80'▲P. Myslovič←▼M. Petkov

Levski Sofia substitutes

12Sangaré22Galchev30Ikenna97Fadiga23Myslovič5Kaap14Stefanov99Andonov

Manager: N. Mitov

68'▲N. Drosev←▼M. Polendakov

68'▲M. Morán←▼K. Serber

83'▲M. Achol←▼B. Rupanov

90+4'▲G. Varbanov←▼M. Mitkov

Septemvri Sofia substitutes

7Drosev8Morán10Achol27Varbanov13Kerkez20Steponavičius23Velichkovski12Ivanov22Vitinho