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Septemvri Sofia vs Levski Lom — Second League 2018

Septemvri Sofia
Septemvri Sofia
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Levski Lom
Levski Lom
3/13/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 27Stadion Dragalevtsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Septemvri Sofia73%
×Draw18%
Levski Lom9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Sofia
2.13
Levski Lom
0.59

Septemvri Sofia creates 261% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 13 away

creates per match

Septemvri Sofia
2.10
Levski Lom
0.31

allows per match

Septemvri Sofia
0.88
Levski Lom
2.15

finishing

Septemvri Sofia+0.00on par
Levski Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Sofia ↓

Levski Lom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Septemvri Sofia or draw
91%
Septemvri Sofia or Levski Lom
82%
Draw or Levski Lom
27%

Winning margin

Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+
48%
Levski Lom wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals
88%
Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals
63%
Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals
35%
Levski Lom 1+ goals
45%
Levski Lom 2+ goals
12%
Levski Lom 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)
89%
Levski Lom (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Sofia at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.88 · 59 matches

Levski Lom away — creates 0.31, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Sofia attack 2.10 + Levski Lom defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.13

Levski Lom attack 0.31 + Septemvri Sofia defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Septemvri Sofia scores more
73%
level
18%
Levski Lom scores more
9%

Septemvri Sofia at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Septemvri Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Septemvri Sofia 3–0 Levski Lom

Septemvri Sofia beat Levski Lom 3-0 in Second League on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Dragalevtsi in Sofia.