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Levski Lom vs Septemvri Sofia — Second League 2018

Levski Lom
Levski Lom
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Septemvri Sofia
Septemvri Sofia
8/29/2021Second LeagueSecond League · Round 8Gradski Stadion Lom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Levski Lom24%
×Draw27%
Septemvri Sofia49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Lom
0.89
Septemvri Sofia
1.40

Septemvri Sofia creates 57% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 60 away

creates per match

Levski Lom
0.77
Septemvri Sofia
1.57

allows per match

Levski Lom
1.23
Septemvri Sofia
1.00

finishing

Levski Lom+0.00on par
Septemvri Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Lom ↓

Septemvri Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Levski Lom or draw
51%
Levski Lom or Septemvri Sofia
73%
Draw or Septemvri Sofia
76%

Winning margin

Levski Lom wins by 2+
8%
Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Levski Lom 1+ goals
59%
Levski Lom 2+ goals
22%
Levski Lom 3+ goals
6%
Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals
75%
Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals
41%
Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Levski Lom (draw refunded)
33%
Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Lom at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Septemvri Sofia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.00 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Lom attack 0.77 + Septemvri Sofia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Septemvri Sofia attack 1.57 + Levski Lom defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Levski Lom scores more
24%
level
27%
Septemvri Sofia scores more
49%

Septemvri Sofia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Septemvri Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levski Lom vs Septemvri Sofia

Septemvri Sofia beat Levski Lom 2-0 in Second League on August 29, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion Lom in Lom.