Septemvri Sofia 1–1 Kariana Erden: Result & Stats

Septemvri Sofia

FT

1 – 1

Kariana Erden

7/1/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Septemvri Sofia40%

×Draw28%

Kariana Erden32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Septemvri SofiaExpected goals in this matchKariana Erden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.08

Septemvri Sofia

1.25

Kariana Erden

1.08

Septemvri Sofia creates 16% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 4 away

1.25

creates per match

0.50

1.67

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Septemvri Sofia

1.25

Kariana Erden

0.50

allows per match

Septemvri Sofia

1.67

Kariana Erden

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Septemvri Sofia+0.00on par

Kariana Erden+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Sofia ↓

Kariana Erden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Septemvri Sofia or draw

68%

Septemvri Sofia or Kariana Erden

72%

Draw or Kariana Erden

60%

Winning margin

Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+

18%

Kariana Erden wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals

71%

Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals

36%

Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals

13%

Kariana Erden 1+ goals

66%

Kariana Erden 2+ goals

29%

Kariana Erden 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)

56%

Kariana Erden (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Sofia at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

Kariana Erden away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Sofia attack 1.25 + Kariana Erden defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Kariana Erden attack 0.50 + Septemvri Sofia defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Septemvri Sofia scores more

40%

level

28%

Kariana Erden scores more

32%

Septemvri Sofia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Septemvri Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff