Kariana Erden vs Septemvri Sofia

Kariana Erden

CANC

00:00

Septemvri Sofia

4/24/2021

Second League · Round 29Stadion Kariana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Kariana Erden38%

×Draw27%

Septemvri Sofia35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kariana ErdenExpected goals in this matchSeptemvri Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.25

Kariana Erden

1.31

Septemvri Sofia

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 60 away

1.61

creates per match

1.57

0.94

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Kariana Erden

1.61

Septemvri Sofia

1.57

allows per match

Kariana Erden

0.94

Septemvri Sofia

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kariana Erden+0.00on par

Septemvri Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariana Erden ↓

Septemvri Sofia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Kariana Erden or draw

65%

Kariana Erden or Septemvri Sofia

73%

Draw or Septemvri Sofia

62%

Winning margin

Kariana Erden wins by 2+

17%

Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Kariana Erden 1+ goals

73%

Kariana Erden 2+ goals

38%

Kariana Erden 3+ goals

14%

Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals

71%

Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals

36%

Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Kariana Erden (draw refunded)

52%

Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariana Erden at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.94 · 33 matches

Septemvri Sofia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.00 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariana Erden attack 1.61 + Septemvri Sofia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Septemvri Sofia attack 1.57 + Kariana Erden defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kariana Erden scores more

38%

level

27%

Septemvri Sofia scores more

35%

Kariana Erden at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kariana Erden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff