Septemvri Sofia 6–1 Hebar 1918: Result & Stats

Septemvri Sofia

FT

6 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Hebar 1918

Alfons Amade 60'

K. Serber 56'

X. Schenk 47'

B. Rupanov 45+1' (pen)

G. Ivanov 36'

M. Mitkov 30'

R. Mazáň 78'

3/10/2025

First League · Round 24Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Septemvri Sofia43%

×Draw26%

Hebar 191830%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Septemvri SofiaExpected goals in this matchHebar 1918

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.15

Septemvri Sofia

1.43

Hebar 1918

1.15

Septemvri Sofia creates 24% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 54 away

1.04

creates per match

0.91

1.39

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Septemvri Sofia

1.04

Hebar 1918

0.91

allows per match

Septemvri Sofia

1.39

Hebar 1918

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Septemvri Sofia+0.00on par

Hebar 1918+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Sofia ↓

Hebar 1918 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Septemvri Sofia or draw

70%

Septemvri Sofia or Hebar 1918

74%

Draw or Hebar 1918

57%

Winning margin

Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+

21%

Hebar 1918 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals

76%

Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals

42%

Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals

17%

Hebar 1918 1+ goals

68%

Hebar 1918 2+ goals

32%

Hebar 1918 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)

59%

Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Sofia at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.39 · 71 matches

Hebar 1918 away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.81 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Sofia attack 1.04 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.43

Hebar 1918 attack 0.91 + Septemvri Sofia defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Septemvri Sofia scores more

43%

level

26%

Hebar 1918 scores more

30%

Septemvri Sofia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Septemvri Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

30'

36'

37'

45+1'

B. RupanovPenalty

46'

B. Ćavar← J. Tsoumou

46'

T. Vidović← N. Markelo

46'

Márcio da Rosa← I. Kort

47'

X. Schenk

56'

K. Serber

60'

Alfons Amade

62'

M. Polendakov← Moi Parra

62'

B. Fourrier← B. Rupanov

62'

Vitinho← K. Serber

62'

I. Rusinov← K. Dünnwald-Turan

62'

S. Nassar-Chouiter← D. Pavlek

69'

K. Önaşçı← V. Ochayi

69'

V. Nikolov← G. Ivanov

78'

R. Mazáň

90'

Kubrat Onasci

Septemvri4-4-2

Hebar5-3-2

17

▼

Tsoumou

10

Makni

70

▼

Dünnwald-

20

Petrović

14

N'Zi

27

⚽

Mazáň

2

▼

Pavlek

29

Zebić

33

Tsonkov

98

▼

Markelo

1

▼

Kort

21

Sheytanov

26

⚽

Schenk

6

▼

Ochayi

4

Hristov

3

Ozornwafo

19

⚽

Mitkov

17

⚽

Amade

16

⚽

▼

Serber

33

⚽

▼

Ivanov

7

▼

Parra

11

⚽

▼

Rupanov

Manager: N. Mitov

62'▲M. Polendakov←▼Moi Parra

62'▲B. Fourrier←▼B. Rupanov

62'▲Vitinho←▼K. Serber

69'▲K. Önaşçı←▼V. Ochayi

69'▲V. Nikolov←▼G. Ivanov

Septemvri Sofia substitutes

5Polendakov15Fourrier22Vitinho13Önaşçı18Nikolov27Varbanov24Gutiérrez8Morán12Ivanov

Manager: B. Akrapović

46'▲B. Ćavar←▼J. Tsoumou

46'▲T. Vidović←▼N. Markelo

46'▲Márcio da Rosa←▼I. Kort

62'▲I. Rusinov←▼K. Dünnwald-Turan

62'▲S. Nassar-Chouiter←▼D. Pavlek

Hebar 1918 substitutes

8Ćavar19Vidović97Rosa88Rusinov7Nassar-Chouiter44Nikolaev55Vukoja4Velchev11Ushagelov