Hebar 1918 3–1 Septemvri Sofia: Result & Stats

Hebar 1918

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Septemvri Sofia

S. Tsonkov 88'

Álex Serrano 81'

G. Tartov 45+1'

K. Peshov 76'

5/26/2023

First League · Relegation Round - 3Stadion Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Hebar 191841%

×Draw27%

Septemvri Sofia32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hebar 1918Expected goals in this matchSeptemvri Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.15

Hebar 1918

1.34

Septemvri Sofia

1.15

Hebar 1918 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 73 away

0.83

creates per match

0.89

1.40

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Hebar 1918

0.83

Septemvri Sofia

0.89

allows per match

Hebar 1918

1.40

Septemvri Sofia

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hebar 1918+0.00on par

Septemvri Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebar 1918 ↓

Septemvri Sofia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Hebar 1918 or draw

68%

Hebar 1918 or Septemvri Sofia

73%

Draw or Septemvri Sofia

59%

Winning margin

Hebar 1918 wins by 2+

19%

Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hebar 1918 1+ goals

74%

Hebar 1918 2+ goals

39%

Hebar 1918 3+ goals

15%

Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals

68%

Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals

32%

Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)

56%

Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebar 1918 at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.40 · 53 matches

Septemvri Sofia away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.85 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebar 1918 attack 0.83 + Septemvri Sofia defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.34

Septemvri Sofia attack 0.89 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hebar 1918 scores more

41%

level

27%

Septemvri Sofia scores more

32%

Hebar 1918 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hebar 1918 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

42'

45+4'

45+1'

46'

A. Todorov← S. Aleksandrov

46'

Y. Gavrilov← P. Čuić

48'

Oktay Hamdiev

57'

L. Maružin← M. Papazov

63'

A. Isuf← N. Nikolaev

74'

A. Živković← V. Marcel

74'

S. Tisovski← O. Hamdiev

76'

81'

81'

88'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Statistics

HebarSeptemvri

Overview

55%Possession45%

15Total Shots6

5Corners5

11Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots6

6On Target3

6Off Target1

3Blocked2

Passing

55%Possession45%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2