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Septemvri Sofia vs Bdin — Second League 2018

Septemvri Sofia
Septemvri Sofia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bdin
Bdin
3/16/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 25Stadion Dragalevtsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Septemvri Sofia69%
×Draw20%
Bdin12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Sofia
2.02
Bdin
0.68

Septemvri Sofia creates 197% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 17 away

creates per match

Septemvri Sofia
2.10
Bdin
0.47

allows per match

Septemvri Sofia
0.88
Bdin
1.94

finishing

Septemvri Sofia+0.00on par
Bdin+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Sofia ↓

Bdin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Septemvri Sofia or draw
88%
Septemvri Sofia or Bdin
80%
Draw or Bdin
31%

Winning margin

Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+
43%
Bdin wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals
87%
Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals
60%
Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals
33%
Bdin 1+ goals
49%
Bdin 2+ goals
15%
Bdin 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)
86%
Bdin (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Sofia at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.88 · 59 matches

Bdin away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Sofia attack 2.10 + Bdin defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.02

Bdin attack 0.47 + Septemvri Sofia defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Septemvri Sofia scores more
69%
level
20%
Bdin scores more
12%

Septemvri Sofia at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Septemvri Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Septemvri Sofia 1–0 Bdin

Septemvri Sofia beat Bdin 1-0 in Second League on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Dragalevtsi in Sofia.