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Bdin vs Septemvri Sofia — Second League 2018

Bdin
Bdin
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Septemvri Sofia
Septemvri Sofia
9/1/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 8Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bdin24%
×Draw29%
Septemvri Sofia48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bdin
0.82
Septemvri Sofia
1.29

Septemvri Sofia creates 57% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 60 away

creates per match

Bdin
0.65
Septemvri Sofia
1.57

allows per match

Bdin
1.00
Septemvri Sofia
1.00

finishing

Bdin+0.00on par
Septemvri Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bdin ↓

Septemvri Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bdin or draw
52%
Bdin or Septemvri Sofia
71%
Draw or Septemvri Sofia
76%

Winning margin

Bdin wins by 2+
7%
Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Bdin 1+ goals
56%
Bdin 2+ goals
20%
Bdin 3+ goals
5%
Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals
72%
Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals
37%
Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bdin (draw refunded)
33%
Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bdin at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Septemvri Sofia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.00 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bdin attack 0.65 + Septemvri Sofia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.82

Septemvri Sofia attack 1.57 + Bdin defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bdin scores more
24%
level
29%
Septemvri Sofia scores more
48%

Septemvri Sofia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Septemvri Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bdin vs Septemvri Sofia

Septemvri Sofia beat Bdin 2-1 in Second League on September 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Benkovski in Pazardzhik.