Septemvri Sofia U19 2–4 Rangers U19: Result & Stats

Septemvri Sofia U19

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Rangers U19

M. Stoychev 30'

S. Aleksandrov 25'

A. Weston 71', 51', 20'

C. McKinnon 44'

11/24/2021

UEFA Youth League · 2nd RoundStadion Slavija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Septemvri Sofia U1931%

×Draw19%

Rangers U1950%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Septemvri Sofia U19Expected goals in this matchRangers U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

2.65

Septemvri Sofia U19

2.07

Rangers U19

2.65

Rangers U19 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

2.00

creates per match

2.29

3.00

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Septemvri Sofia U19

2.00

Rangers U19

2.29

allows per match

Septemvri Sofia U19

3.00

Rangers U19

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Septemvri Sofia U19+0.00on par

Rangers U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Sofia U19 ↓

Rangers U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Septemvri Sofia U19 or draw

50%

Septemvri Sofia U19 or Rangers U19

81%

Draw or Rangers U19

69%

Winning margin

Septemvri Sofia U19 wins by 2+

16%

Rangers U19 wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Septemvri Sofia U19 1+ goals

87%

Septemvri Sofia U19 2+ goals

61%

Septemvri Sofia U19 3+ goals

34%

Rangers U19 1+ goals

93%

Rangers U19 2+ goals

74%

Rangers U19 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Sofia U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Rangers U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Sofia U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Rangers U19 away — creates 2.29, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Sofia U19 attack 2.00 + Rangers U19 defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.07

Rangers U19 attack 2.29 + Septemvri Sofia U19 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Septemvri Sofia U19 scores more

31%

level

19%

Rangers U19 scores more

50%

Rangers U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rangers U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

25'

30'

44'

51'

60'

G. Allen← L. King

64'

G. Shopov← M. Todorov

64'

G. Dokanin← A. Stoykov

68'

A. Lowry

71'

K. Valchinov← M. Stoychev

71'

74'

74'

86'

86'

R. Wilson← R. McCausland

87'

B. Piralkov← G. Ivanov

87'

M. Kolev← K. Kolev

Septemvri

Rangers

1

Hogarth

4

▼

2

5

6

11

▼

McCauslan

8

⚽

McKinnon

7

▼

Lowry

3

Fraser

10

▼

Lindsay

9

⚽3

▼

12

6

25

26

▼

Ivanov

23

▼

Stoykov

7

⚽

Aleksandr

5

Paskov

18

Stoichkov

8

▼

Kolev

9

▼

Todorov

10

⚽

▼

Stoychev

Manager: I. Geshev

64'▲G. Shopov←▼M. Todorov

64'▲G. Dokanin←▼A. Stoykov

71'▲K. Valchinov←▼M. Stoychev

87'▲B. Piralkov←▼G. Ivanov

87'▲M. Kolev←▼K. Kolev

Septemvri Sofia U19 substitutes

17Shopov19Dokanin11Valchinov2Piralkov4Kolev3Delkov1Ivanov

Manager: D. McCallum

60'▲G. Allen←▼L. King

74'▲C. Allan←▼C. Lindsay

74'▲C. McKee←▼A. Lowry

86'▲A. Lyall←▼A. Weston

86'▲R. Wilson←▼R. McCausland

Rangers U19 substitutes

12Allen14Allan16McKee15Lyall18Wilson21Budinauckas17Ure

UEFA Youth League: Septemvri Sofia U19 2–4 Rangers U19

Rangers U19 beat Septemvri Sofia U19 4-2 in UEFA Youth League on November 24, 2021.

Goals: A. Weston (20', 51', 71'), S. Aleksandrov (25'), M. Stoychev (30'), C. McKinnon (44').

The match was played at Stadion Slavija in Sofia.

Septemvri Sofia U19 vs Rangers U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Septemvri Sofia U19 2–4 Rangers U19